The announcement of expected tariffs on the EU from the Trump administration was the last in a series of actions antagonizing the EU from what used to be our closest ally and trade partner. How will EU-China relations develop if the Trump administration continues its aggressive stance towards Europe?
One of the most immediate consequences of Trump’s aggressive policies toward Europe could be a shift in EU- China trade relations.
The proposed tariffs on European goods will force the EU’s hand to reconsider global trade policies, and European policymakers may respond by deepening economic ties with Beijing. One of the effects may be revitalizing the proposed EU- China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI), which has been stalled due to political tensions and human rights concerns as Europe seeks to diversify its economic partnerships.
Given that China remains one of the EU’s largest trading partners, a worsening transatlantic relationship might encourage both sides to explore further economic cooperation.
The EU and China share a common interest in global climate initiatives. While China is the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, it is also a leader in renewable energy technologies, electric vehicles, and battery production. The Trump administration has made its stance on U.S. climate commitments by withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, thus weakening international climate cooperation. As a consequence, the EU may view China as a necessary partner in advancing green policies and supply chain development for clean energy.
Collaboration in areas such as solar energy, electric vehicle supply chains, and carbon reduction strategies could benefit both the EU and China, particularly as the EU pushes forward with its Green Deal and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). However, trade tensions over green subsidies remain as a potential roadblock.
With Trump known for his skepticism of multilateral institutions such as the United Nations (UN) and the World Trade Organization (WTO), a renewed U.S. isolationist stance could drive the EU and China to work more closely within these organizations.
Both the EU and China have a vested interest in maintaining global trade systems in a multipolar world and economic stability, and a retreating U.S. could create opportunities for cooperation in international economic governance.
While economic incentives may push the EU and China toward greater cooperation, deep-rooted geopolitical tensions and ideological differences remain significant barriers to a closer alliance.
One of the major roadblocks to EU- China cooperation is China’s relationship with Russia. China has maintained strong economic and diplomatic ties with Russia, which directly conflicts with European interests, especially amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. The EU has strongly supported Ukraine, imposing sanctions on Russia and advocating for military assistance, while China has refrained from condemning Russia’s actions. However, as Trump continues to cozy up to Putin, this tension may be left in the past.
Furthermore, tensions over Taiwan, China’s human rights record, and cyber security concerns further limit the EU’s willingness to engage with China beyond economic matters.
Another significant challenge to a closer EU- China relationship is the growing concern over Chinese influence in critical European industries. The EU has already taken steps to reduce dependence on Chinese technology, particularly in areas such as 5G, artificial intelligence, and semiconductor manufacturing. While Trump may push for a full ban on Chinese tech in Europe, the EU is more likely to seek diversification rather than complete decoupling.
While Trump’s policies may push the EU away from the U.S. in some areas, this does not necessarily mean Europe will fully embrace China. Instead, European leaders have increasingly emphasized the need for “strategic autonomy“—reducing reliance on both the U.S. and China by strengthening Europe’s industrial base, defense capabilities, and supply chains.
Rather than choosing sides, the EU is more likely to pursue a balancing act, maintaining trade and investment ties with China while simultaneously working to rebuild relations with the U.S. in a post-Trump era. This approach allows the EU to hedge its bets and avoid overdependence on any single global power.
Spain has already called for the EU to reconsider its position and policy towards China, independent of the US. Other European countries have already signaled more openness to China. Germany, which has a significant trade and manufacturing relationship with the country, hasn’t been as harsh in its stance toward Beijing in recent years; it voted against the EU tariffs on Chinese electric car imports last year, for instance. The United Kingdom, under Labour leadership, has also increased its diplomatic outreach to China.
Ursula von der Leyen has also signaled a recalibrated approach to China as tensions continue to rise between the US and Europe and repeated this message at the EU ambassadors conference earlier this month, emphasizing the importance of the EU’s relationship with China.
While the EU may resist Trump’s pressure to decouple from China, it is unlikely to pivot fully toward China as a replacement for the US. It is, however, likely that the EU will continue to navigate a middle path, leveraging its relationships with both the U.S. and China to secure its strategic interests.
The outcome of this balancing act will shape the future of global geopolitics, determining whether Europe remains a bridge between the world’s two superpowers or is forced to choose sides in an increasingly polarized global order.
